To err is human, to repent divine; to persist devilish.
The bond market is debating with itself what the intent of the Fed is. I don't think the Fed has a multi-step process. They are taking it step by step.
You don't get the attention of gluttons by starving anorexics.
The lion's share of the bear market is over,. . . It's a two-part issue. Yes, the marketplace could be nasty. But there's a great deal of nastiness that's already happened in the bond market.
The essence of the problem is that the war against inflation is over,. . . Ever since 1979 the Fed was fighting a war against inflation, and you always knew which way you wanted the inflation rate to go over the long run -- down.
Rightly or wrongly, most Americans look at mortgage equity withdrawal as the closest thing to a free lunch.
Remember, benchmark performance -- beta -- can be had for virtually free; alpha is what active managers are paid to generate.
The future of Afghanistan is incredibly dark, and decisions are happening incredibly quickly. Speculation is a fool's game, but I've seen many political projections that look like the Taliban could hold most of the country, and possibly Kabul, within perhaps a short time. I can't imagine how Afghanistan's fall isn't going to be ten times faster than Iraq's. The role of women in that space is terrifying, and the idea of retribution is a nightmare.
Sometimes it's not the optimist you need, but another pessimist to walk beside you.
Our poets have sung of wine, the product of a foreign plant which commonly they never saw, as if our own plants had no juice in them more than the singers.
I went to Texas a few times for gigs and adopted the cowboy look. Every man, at some point in his life, goes through a cowboy stage - everyone! Well, at least everyone that I look up to!