At the core of an analytical edge is an ability to systematically distinguish between fundamentals and expectations. Fundamentals … - Michael Mauboussin

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I hate news and information and anything that threatens to puncture the bubble of oblivion in which I live.

Michael Mauboussin

At the core of an analytical edge is an ability to systematically distinguish between fundamentals and expectations. Fundamentals are a well thought out distribution of outcomes, and expectations are what's priced into an asset. A power metaphor is the [pari-mutuel] racetrack. The fundamentals are how fast a given horse will run and the expectations are the odds on the tote board. As any serious handicapper knows, you make money only by finding a mispricing between the performance of the horse and the odds. There are no 'good' or 'bad' horses, just correctly or incorrectly priced ones.

Core, Given, Horse, Horses, Odds, Running

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We have no control over outcomes, but we can control the process. Of course, outcomes matter, but by focusing our attention on process, we maximize our chances of good outcomes.

Attention, Chances, Good, Matter, Outcomes

Edge also implies what Ben Graham. . . . called a margin of safety. You have a margin of safety when you buy an asset at a price that is substantially less than its value. As Graham noted, the margin of safety 'is available for absorbing the effect of miscalculations or worse than average luck. '. . . Graham expands, "The margin of safety is always dependent on the price paid. It will be large at one price, small at some higher price, nonexistent at some still higher price. "

Average, Luck, Safety, Substantially, Worse

A thoughtful investment process contemplates both probability and payoffs and carefully considers where the consensus - as revealed by a price - may be wrong. Even though there are also some important features that make investing different than, say, a casino or the track, the basic idea is the same: you want the positive expected value on your side

Expected, Idea, Ideas, Though, Thoughtful, Your Side

People are, by and large, quite poor at judging correct absolute values but are astute about determining relative values. Psychologists call this coherent arbitrariness, which suggests that individuals are coherent when they compare prices on a relative basis but arbitrary when those prices are considered versus fundamental value.

Arbitrariness, Judging, People, Prices, Relative Value

The plural on anecdote is not evidence

Anecdote, Anecdotes, Evidence, Plural