Here's what peak oil is - it's not running out. It's that you no longer can produce more, and more, and more, year after year. World oil production has been going up about 1. 8-2 percent per annum for decades. And that's what the world economy got attuned to.
A minuscule 4 percent of funds produce market-beating after-tax results with a scant 0. 6 percent (annual) margin of gain. The 96 percent of funds that fail to meet or beat the Vanguard 500 Index Fund lose by a wealth-destroying margin of 4. 8 percent per annum.
Well, the questioner came from Singapore which has perhaps the best economic record in the history of developing an economy and therefore he referred to 15% per annum as modest. It's not modest-it's arrogant. Only someone from Singapore would call it modest.